All posts by Kim Smiley

Mechanical engineer, consultant and blogger for ThinkReliability, obsessive reader and big believer in lifelong learning
Root Cause Analysis - Incident Investigation

Is a College Education Worth the Price?

By Kim Smiley

Most students go to college hoping it will further their education and allow them better career opportunities upon graduation.  But is the investment of time and money required to get a college education worth it?

The cost of college has been rapidly increasing over the last several years.  At the same time, many company executives have been noting that today’s students do not graduate college with the critical thinking skills necessary to succeed.  A new book, “Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses,” by sociologists Richard Arum of New York University and Josipa Roksa of the University of Virginia publishes findings of a study that says that students aren’t improving much in the areas of “critical thinking, complex reasoning and writing” during their four years in college.

The study based its results on assessment scores taken by 2,300 students as they entered college, after two years, and after four years.  After two years, 45% of students showed insignificant improvement and after four years, 36% showed insignificant improvement.  The study also found that very little reading and writing is required in many college courses.

The findings indicate that students aren’t being adequately prepared for their future careers.  How do we solve this problem?  Similar to engineering problems, a root cause analysis could be performed to help understand and hopefully solve this problem.  The more clearly a problem is understood, the easier it is to develop and implement solutions.  There are some potential solutions that have been suggested already, but only time will tell if they are successful.

Many institutions of higher learning are working to combat the issue.  More than 70 college and university presidents have pledged to take steps to improve instruction and student learning, and make those results public.  Hopefully the colleges and universities that have pledged to use evidence-based solutions to improve learning will pave the way for all colleges and universities increasing the critical thinking and writing skills of all college graduates.

There are also a number of things that students can do to improve their own learning.  The study found that students who study alone (as opposed to in study groups) are more likely to post gains over college.  Additionally, students who choose to read and write more, and attend more selective schools that focus on teaching rather than research tend to improve their critical thinking and writing skills over their years at college.

Everyone should agree that a large percent of students graduating from college showing little or no improvement in critical reasoning and writing skills is not a desirable outcome – i.e. a problem.  There are many ways to improve the situation.  Some of these solutions must be implemented by the universities themselves, but students can take many actions themselves to increase their learning over their college years.

Click here to read more about this topic.

Root Cause Analysis - Incident Investigation

More Info about Deadly Mine Explosion

By Kim Smiley

Around 3 pm on April 5, 2010 in Montcoal, West Virginia, a huge explosion rocked the Upper Big Branch South mine killing 29 (Click here to read previous blog on the topic).  The toxic gas concentration in the mine remained so high after the accident that Mine Safety and Health Administration investigations were not able to enter the mine for more than two months after the accident.  The final report is still two to three months away, but the MSHA has developed a working theory on what caused the mine explosion.

According to a recent NPR article, investigators believe they have found the source of the spark that started the chain of events that lead to the massive mine explosion.  A longwall mining machine was in operation inside the mine, creating sparks as it ate through both coal and sandstone.  Sparking may have been worse than usual because investigators found that the carbide tipped teeth on the machine were worn down so that bare metal was contacting the stone and coal.

Sparks are expected during these types of operations so a water sprayer system is typically used to prevent explosions from occurring, but investigations found the water system in Upper Big Branch was not functioning properly.  Additionally, a properly functioning water spray system would help control the amount of coal dust in the air.  Coal dust is an accelerant, which means it will contribute to an explosion if ignited.

Another cause of this accident is the level of methane gas in the environment.  The Upper Big Branch South mine is a particularly gassy mine that naturally emitted high levels of methane gas.  There are still some open questions about the role ventilation may have played in the accident.

Small ignitions of methane gas are not uncommon in coal mines, but large explosions are rare.  According to data collected by Mine Safety and Health News, about 600 ignitions have occurred in the past 10 years without any major mine explosions occurring.

Coal mining involves managing a tricky combination of coal dust, methane and sparks.  Usually, no one gets hurt, but in this case the mixture resulted in a massive explosion that traveled more than two miles inside the mine and claimed the lives of 29.  Performing a thorough root cause analysis can help investigators understand what was different in this case and hopefully help the lessons learned be applied to other mines.

As more information comes available, the Cause Map can be expanded to include all relevant details.  Click “Download PDF” above to view the intermediate level Cause Map for this example.

Root Cause Analysis - Incident Investigation

Why Don’t All School Buses Have Seat Belts?

By Kim Smiley

Nearly every state in the US has a law requiring seat belts to be worn in cars. The lone state that doesn’t require adults to wear seat belts, New Hampshire, still has a law requiring children under 18 to wear seat belts.

Currently, only 6 states require seat belt in school buses.  The federal government does not require seat belts to be in installed in buses weighing over 10,000 lbs.  The regular school buses that make up 80 percent of the buses in this country exceed this weight limit and most do not have seat belts.

So if seat belts are required by law in cars, why don’t all school buses have seat belts?

Like most engineering problems, this isn’t as simple a question as it first appears.  The main reason that seat belts aren’t required on all buses is that buses are fundamentally different from cars.

School buses are heavier and taller than cars.  During an accident, a passenger on a bus experiences less severe crash forces than an occupant of a passenger car.  The interior of a modern school bus is designed to protect passengers passively through something called compartmentalization.  The seats are strong, closely-spaced, high backed, and covered in 4 inch thick foam to absorb energy.  The passenger is protected by the cushioned compartment created by the seats.

Buses are considered to be the safest form of ground transportation.  According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, buses are approximately seven times safer than passenger cars or light trucks.

But would seat belts make them even safer?

This is subject to debate.  There are groups pushing for the federal government to require seat belts on all buses.  Others believe that the potential for misuse and incorrectly worn seat belts would actually result in a higher risk to safety if seat belts were installed.  There are also practical considerations like finding funding in cash strapped budgets to install seat belts and to buy the extra buses that would be necessary since fewer students can be accommodated on a bus with seat belts than one without.

There are few topics touchier than the safety of children and no clear cut answers to the question of what constitute a design that is safe enough.  It could be useful when dealing with a problem like this where emotions might run high to document all information in a Cause Map.  A Cause Map is a visual root cause analysis that incorporates the information associated with an issue in an easy to read format.  All pertinent evidence and facts associated with the topic can be recorded.  Having the same facts available to all invested parties can help keep the discussion production and uncover the best solutions.

To learn more about school bus safety, please visit the National Transportation Safety Board website and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration website.

Root Cause Analysis - Incident Investigation

Metrodome Collapsed

By Kim Smiley

At about 5 am in the morning on Sunday, December 12, 2010, the roof of the Metrodome collapsed under the weight of snow accumulated during the heaviest snow storm in almost two decades.  According to the National Weather Service, Minneapolis received a whopping 17.1 inches of snow between Friday and Saturday night.

The Metrodome is home to the Minnesota Vikings and its collapse set off a multicity scramble as the NFL worked to reschedule the Monday night game between the Vikings and the Giants that was planned to take place in the Metrodome on December 13.  After considering all the options, the game was moved to Detroit.  (Ironically, this was the first Monday night game played in Detroit in a decade because of the Detroit Lions’ abysmal record.)

Despite some early optimism, the latest update is that repairs will not be completed until March. The damage to the Metrodome moved the last two games of the Vikings’ season and will impact the schedule of about 300 college baseball games along with many other events planned in the venue.  In addition to the massive schedule impact, the cost associated with the repairs will be significant.

Why did this happen?

A Cause Map can be started using the information that is known.  To build a Cause Map, begin with the impacted goals and add Causes by asking why questions.  In this case, the impacted goals considered are the Production-Schedule goal and the Safety goal.  Fortunately, there were no injuries during the collapse, but the impact to this goal is included because of the potential for injuries if the Metrodome collapsed while occupied.  Click on the “Download PDF” button above to see the initial Cause Map built for this example.

The Metrodome design includes an inflatable dome to protect the venue from the harsh Minnesota winters.  The massive amount of snow accumulation on the dome after the severe storm exceeded the capacity of the dome to stay inflated.  The dome is made of two layers of materials (the outside layer is Teflon coated fiberglass and the inner layer is made from a proprietary acoustical fabric) and air is constantly pumped into the space between the layers to keep it inflated.  The massive weight of the snow tore the roof in several places and it collapsed.

The high winds that accompanied the snow fall were also one of the causes contributing to this accident.  When there are heavy snow falls, workers typically climb on the roof of the Metrodome and use steam and high powered hot water hoses to melt snow and limit accumulation.  Workers were unable to access the roof due to safety concerns because of the strong winds.  Additionally, the other measures used to prevent accumulation were inadequate.  These measures include pumping hot air into the dome and heating the stadium to about 80 degrees to help melt snow.

To view a video of the Metrodome collapsing from inside dome click here.

Root Cause Analysis - Incident Investigation

Toxic Red Sludge Spill

By Kim Smiley

On Monday, October 4, 2010, a massive wave of red sludge flooded into four villages near Kilontar, Hungary when a storage reservoir burst.  Four were killed and at least 150 have needed medical treatment for their injuries.  The most common injuries reported are burns and eye ailments.

Red sludge is a highly caustic material that is produced during the aluminum manufacturing process.  Reports indicate that the sludge had a pH of 13 while stored in the reservoir.  All life has been killed in a 25 mile stretch of river and 16 square miles of land have been covered by the pollution.  Best estimates are that 158 million to 184 million gallons of sludge were released.  This first large scale release of red sludge in history.

Hungary’s top investigative agency is looking into the accident, but the cause for the reservoir barrier failure is not known at this time.

Even with the unknowns, a root cause analysis can be started by creating a Cause Map and documenting all available information.  Any new information can easily be incorporated into the existing Cause Map.

To build a Cause Map, we start with the impacted goals and ask “why” questions.  In this example, the two goals we will consider are the Safety goal and the Environmental goal.  Starting with the Safety goal we begin by asking – Why were people injured?  They were injured because they were exposed to caustic material because red sludge flooded into their villages.  Why?  Because red sludge was stored in a nearly reservoir and the barrier on the reservoir was breached.

Why the barrier failed isn’t known, but we can still add additional information that might be useful.  We know that the red sludge reservoir was near the villages and a little research reveals that this is common practice in the region and that there are a number of similar pools nearby.  This information may become relevant if the investigation determines that the other reservoirs are at risk for a similar failure so it’s worth recording on our Cause Map at this point. There is also information available about the environmental impact that can be added.

The investigation is still incomplete, but the Cause Map can grow as more information comes available.  Once the relevant information is added, the Cause Map can be used to develop solutions to help prevent similar accidents from occurring in the future.

Root Cause Analysis - Incident Investigation

Largest Egg Recall In US History

By Kim Smiley

Two Iowa farms have recently been at the center of the largest egg recall in US history.  Over half a billion eggs were recalled in August after more than 1,500 people were sickened by eggs tainted with salmonella.

How did this happen?  Where did the contamination come from?  How did tainted eggs make it onto supermarket shelves?

The investigation is still ongoing, but we can begin a root cause analysis of this problem by building a Cause Map.  A Cause Map provides a simple visual explanation of all the causes that were required to produce the incident.  A good place to start building a Cause Map is to identify the impacts to the organizational goals.  Causes are then added to the map by asking “why” questions.  (Click on the “Download PDF” button to view a Cause Map of this issue.)

In this example, we’ll consider the safety goal first.  The safety goal was impacted because nearly 1,500 people got sick because they consumed eggs that were contaminated with salmonella.  Why did they eat contaminated eggs?  Contaminated eggs were eaten because they were sold.  Why?  Because the eggs were contaminated at some point and there was inadequate regulation to prevent them from being sold.

Investigators are still determining the exact source of the contamination, but there is significant information available that can be added to the Cause Map.  The eggs were contaminated with salmonella because the hens laying the eggs were contaminated. (This strain of bacteria can be found inside a chicken’s ovaries and is passed on to eggs.)  The exact source that contaminated the hens is still being determined, but testing by the FDA has determined that the hens were likely contaminated after arriving at the farms.  FDA investigators have found a number of sanitation violations, including rodents which are a known carrier of salmonella.  Salmonella is not passed from hen to hen, but is typically passed from rodent droppings to chickens.

As more information comes available we can add to the Cause Map.  Hopefully, the investigation will result in solutions that can be applied and prevent this situation from occurring again.

Root Cause Analysis - Incident Investigation

Golfer Burns Up the Course…Really

By Kim Smiley

On Saturday, August 28 2010, a golfer at the Shady Canyon Golf Course in Irvine, California had a bad day on the course, a really bad day.

He literally burned the course up.

He swung his golf club and accidentally hit a rock.  This put into motion a classic example of cause and effect.  The metal on rock contact produced a spark, which landed on the dry brush in the area.  This tiny spark eventually grew into a 25 acre wild fire that took 150 firefighters, 38 trucks, 53 helicopter drops and 22,000 gallons of water to finally put out.  No one was injured and no homes were destroyed, but it was still an impressively bad day of golfing.

At first glance, this might seem like a freak accident that isn’t worth expending resources to investigate.

But what if this wasn’t the first time something like this happened?

The manager of the course stated that a similar incident happened a few years ago, but the golfer had been able to put the fire out before it could spread.

It seems like it might be worth at least considering possible solutions.

A root cause analysis can be performed by building a Cause Map using the information from this example. A Cause Map provides a simple visual explanation of all the causes that were required to produce the incident.  Cause Maps can be very detailed and include hundreds of causes or can be very high level.  It depends on the type of problem being investigated.  In this case, a fairly simple Cause Map should be adequate to brain storm some possible solutions.  Click on the “Download PDF” button above to view a high level Cause Map.

In this example, there are a number of possible solutions.  The course could be watered more often so that the brush isn’t quite so dry, fire extinguishers could be put on golf carts during the dry season to extinguish any fires that occur before they have a chance to grow, more rocks could be removed from the course and surrounding areas, etc.  There are many solutions that could be implemented.  Once the issue is clearly understood and the causes determined, the most effective, cost effective solutions can be implemented.

Root Cause Analysis - Incident Investigation

A Serendipitous Solution

By Kim Smiley

Investigating the recent massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is a tall order.  There are many contributing causes and a multitude of creative solutions are going to be needed to restore the environment.

During any investigation of this magnitude, there are guaranteed to be a few surprises.  And the Deep Horizon oil spill is no exception.

Scientists have discovered a previously unknown type of oil-eating bacteria feasting on oil from the spill.

This microbe is unique from previously studied varieties because it doesn’t consume large quantities of oxygen along with the oil.  Oxygen consumption is a concern because oxygen is needed in the sea to support life.

This microbe also thrives in cold water temperatures associated with the deep ocean, which might explain why it hasn’t been seen before.  Some scientists are theorizing that the microbe adapted in the deep ocean to consume the oil that naturally seeped from the ocean floor.  Since the huge influx of oil to the water, the bacteria populations have exploded.

Scientists are in a disagreement over how much oil remains in the Gulf, but there is no doubt that less is better.

This serendipitous solution is a welcome addition to the clean up efforts.  Obviously, there are many other solutions that will needed, but anything that safely reduces the overall amount of oil is a positive development.  Hopefully, with some additional research this microbe could be a potential solution to future incidents.

When performing an investigation, the unexpected sometimes happens.  The better understood the problem is, the easier it is to adapt to any new information. The Cause Mapping method of root cause analysis is an effective way to organize all information needed during an investigation.  Clearly understanding the causes that contribute to an incident will allow an organization to adapt as new information comes available and make sure that resources are used in the most efficient ways when implementing solutions.

Root Cause Analysis - Incident Investigation

Spacewalk Delay for Ammonia Leak

By Kim Smiley

Astronauts at the International Space Station ran into problems during a planned replacement of a broken ammonia cooling pump on August 7, 2010.  In order to replace the pump, four ammonia hoses and five electrical cables needed to be disconnected to remove the broken pump.  One of the hoses could not be removed because of a jammed fitting.  When an astronaut was able to disconnect it by hitting the fitting with a hammer, it caused an ammonia leak.

Ammonia is toxic, so the leak impacted both the safety and environmental goals.  Because the broken pump kept one cooling system from working, there was a risk of having to evacuate the space station, should the other system (which was the same age) fail.  This can be considered an impact to the customer service goal.   The repair had to be delayed, which is an impact to the production/schedule goal.  The loss of a redundant system is an impact to the property/equipment goal.     The extended spacewalk is an impact to the labor/time goal.

Once we fill out the outline with the impact to the goals and information regarding the problem, we can go on to the Cause Map.   The ammonia leak was caused by an unknown leak path and the fitting being removed by a hammer.  The fitting was removed with a hammer because it was jammed and had to be disconnected in order for the broken pump to be replaced.  As we’re not aware of what caused the pump to break (this information will likely be discovered now that the pump has been removed), we leave a question mark on the map, to fill in later.

The failed cooling pump also caused the loss of one cooling system.  If the other system, which is near the end of its expected life, were to fail, this would require evacuation from the station.

To aid in our understanding of this incident, we can create a very simple process map of the pump replacement.  The red firework shows the step in the replacement that didn’t go well.  To view the outline, Cause Map and Process Map, click on “Download PDF” above.

Root Cause Analysis - Incident Investigation

Tackling Injuries in the NFL

By Kim Smiley

It’s no secret that a lot of players get hurt in the National Football League (NFL).

But why does this happen?  Why do so many players get hurt?  And what may be a better question, is there a way to prevent injuries?

This problem can be approached by performing a root cause analysis built as a Cause Map using root cause analysis software you probably already own – Microsoft Excel.

The first step is to determine how the organizational goals are impacted.  In this example, the safety goal will be considered.  The safety goal is impacted because there is a potential for injury.  Causes can then be added to the Cause Map by asking “why” questions.

Why do football players get hurt? Football players routinely slam into each other and the ground. It’s the nature of football. Even when the rules are followed, football is a very physically demanding sport with a potential for injuries to occur.

Another reason players get hurt is that they are wearing inadequate protection to prevent injury. Right now the rules only require uniforms, helmets and shoulder pads.  Most players wear very little padding because they want to maximize their speed and mobility.

As a potential solution to this problem, NFL officials are reconsidering the rules that govern the pads worn by players. Currently knee, hip and thigh pads are only recommended, but there is possibility that this will be changed for the 2011 season.

Twelve teams will experiment with lightweight pads during training camps and preseason games this year.  The players will have the option to continue wearing the pads during the actual season if they want.

Depending on the outcome of the trials, there is the possibility that additional padding will be mandatory starting in the 2011 season.  Hopefully, the additional padding will be successful at preventing some injuries, but only time will tell.