By Kim Smiley

On May 1, 2010 authorities found a car bomb in a smoking Nissan Pathfinder in Times Square in New York City (NYC). The bomb had been ignited, but thankfully failed to explode and was disarmed before any damage was done.

The vehicle identification number (VIN) number had been removed from the dashboard and the door sticker, but police retrieved it from the bottom of the engine block.  The VIN was used to identify Faisal Shahzad as the person who recently purchased the car.  The investigation used this evidence in addition to other information to identify Mr. Shahzad as a suspect in the car bomb attempt.  Early in the afternoon of May 3, his name was added to the no-fly list and an email notification was sent to airlines.  In order to view the new name, airlines would have needed to check a website for the most recent no-fly list.

As the investigation continued, Shahzad was put under surveillance, but somehow eluded authorities and drove to JFK airport in NYC undetected.  The evening of May 3, he bought an airline ticket and was able to get through security and board a plane traveling to United Arab Emirates.  He boarded the plane approximately seven hours after his name was added to the no-fly list.

Luckily, investigators learned that Shahzad was on the plane when a final passenger list was sent to officials at the federal Customs and Border Protection agency minutes before takeoff.  He was apprehended before the plane took off and is now in custody.

How was a suspect on the no-fly list allowed to board a plane headed overseas?

A root cause analysis built as a Cause Map can be used to analyze this incident.  This incident is an impact to the Safety goal because a known terror suspect on the no-fly list nearly left the country.  The Cause Map can be built by starting at the impacted goal and asking why questions to add causes.  In this example, the suspect nearly got away because he was allowed to buy a ticket and got through security.  This happened because the airline was using an outdated version of the no-fly list that didn’t include the name because it had recently been added to the list.

There are still a number of causes that are unknown in this case, but an initial Cause map can be viewed by clicking on the “Download PDF” button above.